Friday, November 30, 2007

Mets trade Milledge to Nats for crap

I'm pretty sure this is how this went down:

Jim Bowden: So, uh, Omar. You looking to trade Lastings Milledge? You know toolsy outfielders with big upside turn me on more than a prospective threesome with Jessica Biel and Scarlett Johnanson.

Omar Minaya: Well, we do need a catcher and maybe an outfielder to take Lastings' place ...

Bowden: You mean like Brian Schneider and Ryan Church?

Minaya: Done and done.

Bowden: Holy f$%#&%$* s#!t are you kidding me? I was just... places his hand over the receiver, yells to Assistant GM Mike Rizzo Hey Mike, you were wrong! I'm not the dumbest GM in baseball, Omar's going to send us Milledge for Schneider and Church! takes hand off of receiver. You know what Omar?

Minaya: Dude, I could totally hear you talking to Mike Rizzo. Is that what you really think of me?

Bowden: If I say yes, is the trade off?

Minaya: Maybe.

Bowden: Well then, no. I think you're a genius. Ryan Church is solidly average and that will be a big deal, especially when Moises Alou breaks his hip or gets the shingles and your outfield is Endy Chavez, Ryan Church, and a borderline suicidal Carlos Beltran. Wait, I meant, " when Moises Alou is totally awesome next year and not old at all."

Minaya: So we have a deal?

Bowden: across the room, not even bothering to cover the receiver this time. Mike! Come slap me! I want to make sure I'm not dreaming! What's that Omar? Oh yeah, we have a deal. hangs up.

Omar Minaya's phone rings again immediately.


Minaya: Hello?

Neal Huntington: Hi, Omar, it's Neal, the new GM of the Pirates. Just curious if you're willing to part with Lastings Milledge. I hear you need a catcher and Ronny Paulino sure is a gamer ...

Minaya: Sorry, Neal, I just sent Milledge to Washington for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.

Huntington: Really?

Minaya: Yes, really! Why do people keep asking that.

Huntington: F%$#. hangs up.

Izturis finds a home

The Cardinals signed Cesar Izturis to a one year deal today. I would say that relegates a Jack Wilson trade from "unlikely" to "really, really unlikely." Meanwhile, the Astros signed Kaz Matsui and only the Cubs and Brewers appear remotely interested in winning the division.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Cardinal rumors

Interesting news from the PG this morning: the Pirates are shaping Matt Morris around, possibly to the Cardinals, and the same Cardinals are possibly interested in Jack Wilson. And maybe it's a bit late in the day, but man, what kind of blogger would I be if I didn't weigh in with my two cents here?

Here's the deal- Neal Huntington should do whatever he can to get rid of as much of Matt Morris's contract as he possibly can. If the Cardinals are interested in Jack Wilson (and really, they should be because he's better than Eckstein and most of the other free agent/easily obtainable options left on the market) than Doogie should do everything he can to tack Morris on to that deal. That shouldn't be terribly hard because the Cardinals are looking for veteran pitching. Since there was some kind of legitimate interest in Wilson back in July, that package might actually elicit a decent offer. Anthony Reyes was mentioned in the article and I think he'd be an intriguing pick-up, though I'd be asking for more if I was Huntington because Reyes is a clear "buy low" candidate here and the Cardinals might actually kind of need Wilson. Maybe we don't have anyone to play shortstop if we deal Wilson, but what's the honest difference between Bixler and Wilson in 2008? 72 wins and 65 wins (I doubt it's even that much)? I can handle that, especially if it helps us win games down the road.

Regardless, Huntington needs to get this deal done for a different reason. It would be nice to dump two high priced players that are average at best from a small market team that can afford them, but can't afford them and players that they need at the same time. It would be nice to get rid of them and restock with younger players. The reason that this deal has to happen is that Matt Morris has to not be a Pirate anymore. Seriously, he's the living monument of DL's inefficiency and crappiness. If the Cards want Wilson, I hope Doogie's pushing Morris on them, too. Maybe it's petty, but geez, I can't be logical all the time.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Links

Humberto Cota and Yurendell DeCaster are officially the Nationals' problem now, while Shane Youman is now the Phillies problem. How much dreck can come from one system?

Buried in a Johan Santana Hot Stove story at CBS is a mentioned of Neal Huntington discussing trading Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady to San Diego for Chase Headley. Don't know how much there is to it, but it's an interesting rumor.

Also, Delmon Young for Matt Garza? Wow. Just wow.

Some midday reading

In case you missed it, Jeff Passan at Yahoo wrote up the Pirates in Yahoo's Hot Stove Daily earlier this week. Here's a fun excerpt: I

t's not so much that the Pirates are in a bad situation. Their new ballpark is beautiful, their fans still devoted, their history rich. It's just that the systemic losing has worn thinner than the enamel on the loyalists' teeth, ground down by the frustration of bad management and worse ownership.

An overhaul of the front office ought to help in the first respect; the second is a horse pill without water to ease it down. The Pirates might increase their payroll, but not to the level needed to compete when the big league club is so downtrodden. New general manager Neal Huntington has already recused the Pirates from bidding on any of the high-profile free agents, so instead the focus turns to how Pittsburgh can improve itself with spare parts and trades.

I love being reminded how hopeless my fandom is!!! It seems pretty fair to say that Passan comes off as dubious that Huntington is going to turn things around here, though that's with some reading between the lines on my part.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Don Long, hitting coach

John Russell continues to round out his staff and this time it's with another name from the Phillies organization: new hitting coach Don Long. He's been the Phillies minor league hitting instructor since 1999, which means he's worked with a lot of the guys who made up one of the best offenses in baseball this year in Philadelphia. Of course, Gerald Perry was thought of as one of the best hitting coaches in baseball before he came to work for Lloyd McClendon's staff. After all the talk of remodeling the team after the Indians, Long is the third member of the coaching staff (after Russell and Varsho) to have spent significant time in the Phillies organization. That might be meaningless coincidence, but I kind of doubt it.

Monday, November 26, 2007

I suppose this is good news

When you're a Pirate fan, you take what you can get. For example, the following might be one of the most positive quotes I can ever remember reading during any off-season:

Reliever John Grabow and several other Pirates who ended the 2007 season with injuries all appear to be mending in plenty of time to be ready for spring training.

And none of them, so far, has gone under the scalpel.

An off-season where no Pirates are having surgery?!? How will the surgeons of the world survive?!? Think of their children!!!

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Some real baseball news

The return of Dejan from his winter vacation coincides with two pieces in the PG today that actually have something to do with Neal Huntington's off-season plans. Imagine that.

First up, we learn that the Pirates have inquired about Matt Clement. I've never been a big Clement fan, but it's probably true that he'd be a cheap option to fill the back end of the rotation since he's coming off of shoulder surgery. A sure thing? No. Cheap and possibly worth something in a trade if he comes around? Yes. Then again, the back end of our rotation is already plugged with a massively expensive option. Maybe Neal has something in mind for Matt Morris. I sure hope so.

Next up is Dejan's first Hot Stove report. It's about Jason Bay and Jack Wilson and whether or not they're going to be dealt this off-season. The money quote:

"No, none of our players is being actively shopped," he said.

In the same breath, though ...

"If a club calls and inquires about one of our players, we have to listen. That's just where we are."

Huntington often has repeated that the Pirates must improve their organizational depth, especially in Class AAA, even if that means making moves he feels will be "not popular."

So, none of the players are being actively shopped, Doogie's just trying to trade all of them. Got it. If I'm not mistaken, he's also got some bad grammar. He does say that Maholm, Snell, and Gorzelanny are pretty off-limits right now. Of course, there's also his speech to the other GMs about his off-season plans at the GM Meetings:

"We stood up and said that we're interested in making good baseball trades and that we need to add depth to our system."

And the meaning of "good baseball trades" was that other teams should not expect outright salary dumps?

"Exactly. For certain players, our asking price is outrageous, and we acknowledge that. We feel there are guys on this club who are a big part of our core."

DAVE LITTLEFIELD ALERT! DAVE LITTLEFIELD ALERT!

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Let's keep talking about Zach Duke!

You guys have no idea how happy I am to have kicked off a violent reaction to something I wrote that doesn't involve Nyjer Morgan, even if all of you are violently opposed to what I wrote. Of course, I think a lot of the reason you're violently opposed to what I wrote is that I did a terrible job of explaining what was really on my mind. Accordingly, let's look a little further into Zach Duke and see if I can make myself a little clearer.

First off, I would suggest going back and reading my review of Duke's 2007. I used it to try and figure out how to explain Duke's struggles and whether injury or general ineptitude were more to blame. Obviously that's something that we'll probably never know for sure, though if you read my post you can tell I'm leaning towards injury not being Duke's biggest problem last year. The one thing that I didn't believe then and don't believe now and won't believe even when I'm sitting at Milliways for the last meal in the recorded history of creation is that Jim Colborn's "tweak" caused Duke's problems. There's just too many signs to the contrary for me to simply chalk Duke's struggles up to that and move on.

That was what bugged me about the Andrews story. Clearly, he's the pitching coach and it's his job to try and make Zach Duke a respectable pitcher and if he didn't work with Duke, that would be irresponsible and stupid, especially because the back end of the rotation is so freaking empty behind Snell and Gorzelanny. What irked me was that "fixing Duke" was the first thing he brought up in regards to the Pirates' job. Admittedly, I may have been reading way too far into things, but the article read to me like Andrews was going, "Yeah, well, Colborn was a dumbass and screwed up a fantastic pitcher and now that I'm here, I'm going to fix what he did wrong and Zach Duke is going to be just like he was back in 2005 again."

In reality, Andrews is saying exactly what Colborn said when he was hired. Read this quote from the article:

"Mechanics isn't a real fun issue to talk about," Andrews said, "but we need him to become consistent. I think it's going to work. I think he's going to believe in it. It's pretty basic stuff -- but he's a pretty basic pitcher.
Now read this article from April 2006 where Colborn talks about the changes made with Duke:

Colborn's work with Duke in the spring, as he reiterated, did not involve a mechanical switch. Rather, it was aimed at developing a consistent delivery. When Duke reported for spring training, Colborn detected inconsistencies.

"I watched tapes of Zach Duke from last year, and that was exactly the kind of pitcher I want him to be," Colborn said. "This was about timing, about having a sense for where certain body parts need to be at certain points in the delivery."

See, that's what bothered me about the Andrews article; that he and Meyer both seem to think he's going to be able to do something amazing and revolutionary with Duke and I don't think he's going to do anything that different than what Colborn tried to do.

Friday, November 23, 2007

Jeff Andrews is already annoying me

From today's PG:

How Andrews works with one pitcher, however, will draw a lot of attention over the next several months.

Specifically, can Andrews "untweak" Zach Duke and turn him back into the wunderkind left-hander he was as a rookie in 2005?

"He can pitch," said Andrews, announced by the Pirates as their pitching coach yesterday. "I think he's going to come out of it."

"It" is the funk Duke fell into in 2006-07 beginning with former pitching coach Jim Colborn's decision to tweak his delivery in spring training 2006.

The quotes around the word "untweak" suggest that it was Andrews' word and not Meyer's. So, the way he's going to fix Duke is by MAKING MORE CHANGES.

The name of the article is "Andrews' No.1 priority-- Duke." The problem is that Duke is, at the absolute best (and I think this is up for debate) the third most talented starter on the team. Andrews' #1 priority should be figuring out why Ian Snell went from "Roger Clemens level" back to "2006 Ian Snell level" in the second half. Or maybe how to get Tom Gorzelanny to last a full year. The reward from working with those two would be much greater than attempting to getting Duke back to his 2005 level, which is about as likely as me sprouting wings. I can just feel myself getting more and more cynical with this new staff and front office as each day goes by.

Links

Jason Kendall is continuing his tour of the NL Central by signing with the Brewers for a year or two. And now you can pencil the Cubs in for an NL Central repeat.

Blue Jays' pitcher Joe Kennedy died this morning of a possible brain aneurysm. Awful, awful news for the day after Thanksgiving (or any day, for that matter). RIP, Joe.

So, let's get this straight. Last year, the Angels signed the terribly overrated Gary Matthews Jr. to a 5 year/$50 million contract. Apparently, they weren't happy with that bit of ridiculous overspending, so they went out and inked Torii Hunter to a 5 year/$90 million deal this week. Mark my words, they will regret that deal. Hunter is overrated at the plate (he's slugged over .500 twice in his career and NEVER had an OBP of .340) and already declining in the field at the age of 31. Still, the Angels are paying him like a super-star. Bad idea.

Worse idea? 4 years and $19 million for Scott Linebrink. Umm, Doogie? TRADE RELIEVERS NOW!!!

The Indians and Mariners are signing or close to signing Japanese pitchers. The Pirates may or may not be trying something similar (and no, I don't mean Masumi Kuwata).

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Happy Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving, guys. Today, I am thankful that Dave Littlefield is fired. Seriously, how amazing is that?

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

New coaches and the 40-man shuffle

As anticipated, Gary Varsho and Tony Beasley were hired to be the Pirates' new bench coach and third base coach. Jim Leyland is cursing himself for letting a Pirate from the early 90s evade his staff. We also hired a bullpen coach. I used to think I knew what a bullpen coach did, until Lloyd McClendon was hired to do it for a year in Detroit. Now I'm clueless
Today we added one more coach to the mix by promoting Jeff Andrews from the pitching coach slot at Indy to the same job on John Russell's staff. I don't know how I feel about promoting from within, but I guess that's not fair to Andrews because he can only work with the talent that the former front office gave him.

More interestingly, we did some shuffling of the 40-man before setting it for the winter. We dropped Josh Sharpless and Shane Youman off the 40-man, which isn't terribly surprising or interesting. We also dropped Josh Phelps, which seems stupid to me as he's not actually a bad hitter, but at the same time he's not a good one and we do have other guys who can play first base and hit lefties better than he can, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised (especially because he never played after Huntington took over at the end of the year). Getting worked up over cutting Josh Phelps isn't a terribly productive exercise, I don't think. The guys we added to the roster are rather interesting. We claimed Jimmy Barthmaier from Houston, who's a starting pitcher that is probably best characterized as a "project" if I feel like being kind today. We also added Brian Bixler, Ronald Bellisario, and Olivo Astacio to the roster. Bellisario and Astacio are right-handed relievers. You can read about all three new guys that you haven't heard of before at WTM's site.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Remember Gary Varsho?

According to Paul Meyer, the Bucs are going to name some of their new coaches today. I think it's a bit strange that Doogie is announcing the hirings and not Russell, but what do I know, I'm just a blogger.

Meyer names three names and the one that jumps out at me is Gary Varsho, who was a backup outfielder/pinch hitter on the 1990 and 1991 teams. He's coming from the Indians system, though he's also worked with the Phillies in the past. That's only interesting to me because I'm trying to ascertain who's hiring who here. Anyways, there's no official announcement yet, but I've gotta hit the road back to Western PA for Thanksgiving, so if they do announce it, go wild in the comments until I can post.

Monday, November 19, 2007

The shortstop market heats up

This afternoon the Angels traded Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for John Garland. If you're curious, Wilson and Cabrera are actually pretty comparable players. Wilson is usually a worse hitter, but his two best years and better than anything Cabrera's done recently. Cabrera is a few years older, more expensive, and, using David Pinto's PMR, not as good with the glove as Jack. Of course Cabrera has a couple Gold Gloves to his name and he's got a World Series ring, which puts his "intangibles" through the roof when trying to figure out his value in a trade, but I suppose if Huntington is trying to trade Jack, he should be looking for at least John Garland type value (which, actually, isn't terribly much).

Peace out, Cesar

So I missed this over the weekend, but the Pirates unsurprisingly declined Cesar Izturis's option for the 2008 season. Even if we had a deal with Jack Wilson set in stone, Cesar Izturis wouldn't be worth more than $5 million, so it's hard to quabble with this move. I know people are wondering if we'll try and bring him back cheaply if we do trade Wilson, but that's kind of unlikely in a world that David Eckstein is potentially worth $9 million. Oh, and plus he's terrible. I can't believe we actually traded someone for him. Damn you, Jim Tracy.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are expected to name John Russell's coaching staff this week. I know you're as excited as I am to see what kind of people will actually work for a guy that finished 30 games below .500 in AAA last year. Too harsh?

Saturday, November 17, 2007

AFL Update

So, there's this whole Arizona Fall League going on that I've been kind of ignoring, mostly because the only player there I'm mildly interested in is Andrew McCutchen. Let's see how the Bucs are doing on the Phoenix Dirt Dogs (who've made it to the finals):

Andrew McCutchen: .286/.381/.378
You know what's a bad sign? A slugging percentage lower than an OBP in the Arizona Fall League. After showing some surprising pop in 2006, he's shown none of that in 2007. He's still very young so it's hard to hit a panic button on him as a prospect yet, especially because he's doing a good job of getting on base in Arizona, but let's just say it's not surprising when Pirate prospects don't live up to the hype.

Nyjer Morgan: .258/.355/.355, Super Speed Rating: 1,098,762
Somehow, Nyjer Morgan has become the most polarizing player in the Pirates system. That's sad. I wish we had someone better to argue over. Just remember that the AFL is always a pronounced hitter's league and this is the best that Nyjer, who I think is the oldest player on the team, could do.

Jesse Chavez: 20 hits and 8 earned runs in 12 innings. Ugly.

Dave Davidson and Patrick Bresnahan: Combined to pitch 13 and 1/3 innings, which means everything they did was more or less meaningless in terms of figuring how well they pitched.

Chris Hernandez: Pitched fairly well in 13 innings. Is 27 years old.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Barry Bonds Indicted

Barry Bonds was indicted today on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. There goes the Wild Things contract, his Major League career, 3,000 hits, and probably his records. That or Bud Selig is spineless.

More piling on Pirates.com

See, the reason someone needs to fix Pirates.com is right here. That's a nice article about how hard Doogie is working now that he's the GM and how excited he is to turn the team around and really I'd be pretty heartened by it if I wasn't such a cynical jackass. But I am and at least three other articles on the main page feature Nyjer Morgan's name in the title, which casts doubt on everything else on the site, in my eyes. Oh well.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

A-Rod is still a Yankee

In news that shouldn't surprise anyone, it looks like A-Rod is going to re-sign with the Yankees. In news that should shock the hell out of you, it looks like he may have ditched Scott Boras and is taking a considerable cut from what his market value probably is (the rumored deal is 10 years, $275 million and crazy as it is, I'm certain he could get $300 million on an open market) to do so.

Why do I have to still read crap like this?

So I'm patrolling the Pirate internet looking for some Pirate news to talk about because it's painfully scarce right now and the fact that I've barely been writing makes me feel really bad because there are still lots of people reading and commenting (incidentally, we're only 98 comments away from the 10,000th comment in WHYGAVS history, I'll be monitoring the situation). So I click on over to the team page and what do I read? First, I get the following headline:

Morgan speeding through Bucs system
Now there is a statement which is technically true and intentionally misleading. Remember that a lot of you were surprised when I mentioned that Nyjer Morgan was 26-years old. Now, I can't speak for everyone, but I tend to assume that anyone that spends their day reading Pirate blogs and leaving comments in October (which was when I did the post about Morgan and McLouth and Duffy and talked about their performances relative to age, etc.) is a pretty freaking hardcore Pirate fan. I would imagine if you got a random sampling of Pirate fans at PNC Park on the last day of the year and asked them how old Nyjer Morgan was, 90% would guess 24 or under. And yet here we are in November reading headlines on the team website about how this guy who's played 28 major league games at the age of 26 is "speeding" through the minor league system. Of course he's fast, so the headline is technically right. But that's not the point and anyone that knows enough about the Pirates knows it.

Still, I read onwards. And the whole article is filled with sub-headlines and picture captions and things like that that imply that Nyjer Morgan is the left-fielder of the future in Pittsburgh and that the plan is to have both of them playing together in the outfield. Now, Nyjer Morgan seems like an awesome guy. I really do get that impression from everything I read about him and see from him. The problem is, he's just not that great at baseball. I promise you that any team with Nyjer Morgan as their starting left fielder for any significant amount of time will lose at least 90 games. I'm not kidding, even a little bit.

So here's my problem: we all knew that Pirates.com was a mouthpiece for Littlefield and McClatchy. Why are they still pumping out stories that would make Dave Littlefield smile? Now that he's gone and Doogie is GM, shouldn't I at least be reading about how Morgan's UZR or PMR (I wish he had played enough to make David Pinto's list, I'm always curious to see how we grade out there and will likely post about it later) could make him worth playing, even though he's likely going to be a stiff at the plate?

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Barry Bonds ... a Wild Thing?

By know most of you have probably heard that the Washington Wild Things have offered Barry Bonds a contract as a PR stunt. As someone that spent a lot of time in WashPA last spring, I find this to be particularly hilarious. Imagining Barry at various spots around town- the Mexican restaurant, the VIP club/bar/dingy basement, on W&J's campus by the hilariously phallic statue of Washington and Jefferson (imagine the view of this from the side ... yeah) with Mayor Luke, staying with a "host family" somewhere in town- wow, it would all be too good to be true. I wish there was some way to make this all happen outside of my head.

Another front office hire

The Pirates announced today (or yesterday, or somewhere in there) the hiring of Larry Corrigan as another special assistant to Huntington. I like this hire much more than the Tanner hire, to be honest. He's been in Minnesota's system for a very long time and most recently worked as a special assistant to Terry Ryan. Since the Twins are one of the teams I hope the Pirates are modeling themselves after, it's hard not to like this news. He was the Twins scouting director for two years in the early 90s and worked with Russell when he was the minor league field coordinator (whatever that is) in the mid-90s. According to the same article, he's already at work helping John Russell fill out his coaching staff.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Catching up links

Chuck Tanner was hired as a special assistant to the GM. I'm sorry, but this seems like the same type of PR crap the old front office loved so much. It's nice to see him back with the club and all, but he's almost 80 years old and I can't imagine he's going to be much help to Huntington.

Neal Huntington apparently is shopping Jason Bay. So apparently we'll find out what kind of GM he's going to be pretty quickly (via Bucs Dugout and Honest Wagner).

Base coaches will wear helmets in light of the Mike Coolbaugh tragedy this summer.

Thor would like to come back. Unfortunately for him, we have about 8 guys that play his position(s) and they've sucked a lot less recently than he has.

Friday, November 09, 2007

Fire up the WHYGAVS Jukebox

There's a fairly good chance that I'm going to be out of blogging range until Sunday afternoon. That means I can leave you with two things to do. The first is jump in on my favorite thread of all time, here. You'll know what to do when you get there. Next up is something you'll be familiar with if you've been around a while. It's time for me to crack open the WHYGAVS Jukebox. That's where I write out a list of Pirates, fire up iTunes, hit shuffle, and apply the songs as they come up on the list. Then it's up to you guys to figure out how they apply. The thread in the post doubles as an open thread to plot world domination as well or discuss free agency or semi-obscure movies, or whatever until I can get posting again. Today, let's welcome the new members of the front office with some choice selections:

Frank Coonelly: One Angry Dwarf and 200 Solemn Faces- Ben Folds (the live version, not the Five version, if you're curious). This is perfect. Coonelly is the exact type of guy I imagine being tortured in high school for being a dweeb, only to lord it over his tormentors now.

Neal Huntington: Rock and Roll- The Velvet Underground. How to describe the first couple months of Doogie's GM tenure? It was alright. Appropos of nothing, seeing a Velvet Underground song immediately reminds me of this exchange from Almost Famous:

Lester Bangs: You like Lou Reed?
William Miller: The early stuff. In his new stuff he's just trying to be Bowie. He should just try to be himself.
Lester Bangs: Yeah, but if Bowie's doing Lou and Lou's doing Bowie, Lou's still doing Lou.
William Miller: If you like Lou.
Message to Neal: you don't have to be Mark Shapiro. You just have to be good. Not even as good as Lou Reed or David Bowie. Just good.

Greg Smith: I'm Not Down-The Clash. Is this a message to us from the deposed scouting director of the Tigers somehow speaking through my computer? Probably not. If I have 3,000 songs on my computer, I could probably find a way to relate 1,000 of them to Greg Smith in one way or another.

Kyle Stark: Snow (Hey Oh)- Red Hot Chili Peppers. Umm, honestly, I didn't like Stadium Arcadium nearly as much as By the Way or Californication (both of which I would've listened to until the grooves wore out if CDs had grooves). I do already like Kyle Stark more than Brian Graham, though that's just because I prefer things I know nothing about to things that I know suck (now there is a dangerous blanket statement).

Sadly the shuffle gods didn't spit out any Zappa or Dead Milkmen, which always prompt my favorite music discussions. On that note, I guess all I can say is have a great weekend while I'm Smokin' Banana Peels and trudgin' across the tundra (mile after mile) right down to the parish of St. Alfonzo for his famous pancake breakfast.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

2007 Review: all the pitchers that are left

Ugh. It's November 8th and that means it's time to wrap this meandering season review up. Beyond the four big starters, I don't care much about the pen and everyone so these are going to be mostly quick hits.

Matt Capps- In theory, Matt Capps should suck. He's a guy with a straight 94-mph fastball that is only exceptional because of his ability to put it over the place, and that's his out pitch. In actuality, Matt Capps was one of the few Pirates that didn't underperform in 2007. 1.01 WHIP and 64 K's to only 16 walks in 64 innings? That's just silly. I was happy to see him not get abused by Tracy again this year because really, he's our one bullpen stud. Not that you need a bullpen stud when you suck, but hey, they're nice to have.

Salomon Torres- This is what happens when you sign a 34-year old reliever to a big extension (the Pirates did this for Torres in '06). Now we're saddled with him for at least one more year. I'd trade him now if someone will take him, because I doubt he'll be worth much by the time this year is over.

Matt Morris-
Matt Morris is probably a really nice guy in real life. I would probably enjoy having beers with him. But this is baseball and in the baseball world, my blood literally boils every single time he takes the mound in black and gold. When friends complain about their baseball teams, I will likely respond with "Yeah, but at least you didn't trade for Matt Morris" until at least 2032. I hope we trade him for anything, simply because he is a breathing, walking, living reminder of Dave Littlefield. If Lacuna, Inc. actually existed, I would probably have DL erased from my brain waaay before any ex-girlfriend.

Damaso Marte- Really nice bounceback year for Marte in '07. He was silly dominant against lefties (6-for-64 against him!) and effective against righties. He should have some real trade value because of the way he dominates lefties and because he's silly cheap in 2008, clocking in at $2 million.

John Grabow- Never bounced back from his early season injury. Will always be John Grablow to me. Would be terrifying as our primary LOOGY if Marte gets shipped out of town.

Josh/Jonah Sharpless/Bayliss- Suck

Tony Armas- Typical DL Pirate, gone five months too late.

Masumi Kuwata- Old, nice story, probably nice guy, peak of DL's knack for making moves with more PR value than baseball value, thankfully gone with his eephus pitch.

Shane Youman- Kind of like Josh Fogg, only left-handed. And worse at baseball.

Shawn Chacon-
Surprisingly only mildly awful as a reliever (as opposed to the expected, "completely awful"). The Pirates might bring him back, but if they do it at a high price I'll be pissed.

Franquellis Osoria- Why was Franquellis Osoria a Pirate? Because he was a member of the greatest baseball team known to man, the 2005 Dodgers. He's probably OK as a middle-relief guy.

Brian Bullington and John Van Benschoten- It's official, they're busts. I do feel bad for these guys, though. Talk about a crippling organization to be drafted into.

Wayback Wasin, Marty McLeary, Dan Kolb- Thankfully nothing but distant memories.

Juan Perez and Brian Rogers- Possibly still in the organization, but not good enough for me to care.

Dave Davidson- Mildly promising.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Huntington keeps hiring

I said that I thought that the guys Doogie hired to fill out his front office would be more important than Russell. Today he hired a scouting director, a director of player development, and a director of baseball operations. These are the men that will shape the future of the Pirates. So who are they?

Kyle Stark, director of player development: He's coming from an assistant farm director position in Cleveland. He's 29, I think he's got a law degree, and three years ago he was a pitching coach for St. Bonaventure. So he's really young, which means he's either incredibly motivated or just incredibly unqualified for his job. I will choose to believe the first one until I have reason to think otherwise.

Greg Smith, director of scouting: Coming from Detroit. This one line from the PG terrifies me:

Smith, 41, worked the past three seasons as a special assignment scout for the Detroit Tigers. For the eight years before that, he was Detroit's scouting director ...
Ahhh, demotion. I want to say that he can learn and get better at his job. The thing is, Ed Creech never did. Still, I'm willing to give anyone not actually named Ed Creech a chance.

Bryan Minniti, director of baseball operations: I don't know what this job does, but I don't think it's a whole lot. He's only 27 and he's worked for us for the past seven years. My brain doesn't know how to process that information.

Get to know these names, guys. These are the go-to names to complain about when something goes wrong.

Q&As from the mothership

In the comments on the post below, Emma points out this link, which is a couple days old but worth sharing:

The Pirates upper management has widely ignored OBP (on base percentage) in the past. How important will OBP be in player evaluation under your leadership?
-- Eric S., Pennsboro, W.Va

We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating.

Holy freaking hell, our new GM considers "Runs Created" to be a "traditional objective evaluation." Admittedly, it seems like he's just rolling buzzword stats out to make people like me happy, but since we've hired a guy with a scouting background who seems to know his way around the BP glossary, well, that makes me happy. Plus he looks like Richie Cunningham and Toby Flenderson's love child.

What kills me is that we go from that nice and encouraging interview with Huntington (does anyone know his middle name? Does it start with P? Because then we could call him NPH, which would become Doogie, which I now think is his new nickname no matter what his middle name is ... Doogie it is, then) to a Jennifer Langosch mailbag. Now, I don't make it a habit to aimlessly rip into writers who have much better jobs than me (unless they're Ron Cook, Bob Smizik, or they work for the Trib, in which case they deserve it), but reading things like this make my blood boil, especially when they're linked millimeters away from Huntington talking about VORP and PMR and such:

Based on his production the last two seasons, [Freddy] Sanchez has made many believe that he has the potential to be a cornerstone for this organization. A year removed from surprising the baseball world by winning the NL batting title, Sanchez proved in 2007 that the honor was not a fluke. Add in the fact that defensively, he's one of the best second baseman in the league, and former general manager Dave Littlefield appears to have made a steal in nabbing Sanchez from the Red Sox in 2003.
.785 OPS + 32 walks in 652 PAs + average defense at second base (saying he's the best doesn't just magically make it so) + 30 years old with an injury history= cornerstone? Really? Doogie, if you need someone to handle the Mailbags on the team site, my e-mail address is right in the corner. I'm only kind of kidding.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

More about John Russell

Now that the papers have had a day to gear up and cover the John Russell bonanza (or something like that), we've got some stuff to talk about.

Go to the PG and watch the video of Neal Huntington introducing Russell. First impressions:

  1. He doesn't sound like a moron. This is huge. The day we hired Tracy my dad called me and said, "I dunno, maybe it's just the first impression, but I think Tracy is really, really stupid." I don't get that impression from Russell (though he did promise to "bring the proud" if I heard correctly)
  2. Neal Huntington really thinks he got the right guy for the job. Well, that or he's a good liar. But could a face like that lie to us?
  3. Also, I like Huntington's black and gold suit and tie combo and all I could see from Russell was that he had on a gold/yellow tie, so we can probably assume he was dressed similarly. On a slightly unrelated tangent, things like that were what immediately impressed me about Mike Tomlin when the Steelers hired him (you don't know this because this isn't Where Have You Gone, Barry Foster?, but I was the first person aboard the Mike Tomlin bandwagon, in fact, I'm probably the driver). The people that work for the Pirates' don't have to be from Pittsburgh, but I like to see that they have a respect for the team history and understand what it means to some of us.
  4. Russell's glasses are stupid. They have to go.
Now we move to Paul Meyer's article, which is actually from yesterday, but oh well. It's about what you'd expect from Meyer, though I have to give him credit for writing the following line with what I'm assuming was a straight face:
It also says something about Russell, 46, who coaxed 55 wins out of a terrible Ottawa Lynx team -- the Phillies' Class AAA affiliate in the International League -- and wound up becoming a big-league manager for the first time.
He does know they played 143 games, right?

That being said, I found myself reading and actually agreeing with Bob Smizik's reaction to the mass hysteria of casual Pirate fans. Managing in the minors is a completely different job than managing in the big leagues.

Let's pretend that last January, or whenever it was, on the day Bob Nutting became the "official owner" of the Pirates you had a magical glimpse into the future of WHYGAVS, from the day DL was fired through Guy Fawke's Day. Besides wondering, "Geez, Pat, what the hell happened? Why did you barely post?" you'd be reading it going, "Wait, since Nutting took over, McClatchy stepped down, he hired a new CEO that knows something about baseball, and this man promptly had Dave Littlefield fired and hired a GM that knew well enough to fire Jim Tracy. Why aren't there parades? Why are people second guessing Huntington and Russell? Maybe they're not ideal, but they're certainly not Littlefield and Tracy and that's some place to start!"

Monday, November 05, 2007

John Russell is not a reason for mutiny

Now that Russell is official, let's take some time to talk about what his hiring means to the Pirates. First off, it's unfair to him to characterize him as "being fired by the organization" in the past. In most cases, coaches work more for the manager than they do for the organization itself. When McClendon was fired and Tracy, a guy who loved everything about his LA team, was hired, it was pretty much a death sentence for McClendon's staff, no matter how good they were at their jobs. Likewise, nearly all of Tracy's staff found jobs pretty quickly once Jim was let go here in Pittsburgh. Russell worked here as a third base coach for two years and when McClendon was let go, he got a gig managing a AAA team with a pretty decent organization. I wouldn't read any further into it than that.

I can imagine that a lot of people's thoughts today run along the lines of, "We looked for a month and we ended up with this guy?" The truth is, most managers are incredibly similar. They're going to bunt at inopportune times. Jim Leyland plays guys like Sean Casey and Neifi Perez. Terry Francona switches Manny Ramirez out for Coco Crisp in late innings when it could cost Manny an at-bat. Tony La Russa manages his bullpen like an 18 year-old nerd buzzed on Red Bull playing World of Warcraft. Clint Hurdle bats Willy Taveras lead-off most of the time. Joe Torre rides veterans until their tanks are bone dry, even with talented youngsters available, and he destroys bullpen arms. None of these things make logical sense, strictly from the point of trying to win baseball games. And that's because managers don't really win games for you, they do their best not to lose them and they do their best to keep their players playing hard and not killing each other. That's what guys like Francona, Torre, and Leyland excel at. In terms of in-game strategy, though, there's nothing a manager can do to set himself apart from the rest of the pack (in the right direction that is, there's always Ozzie Guillen and the like in the other direction).

Of all the candidates we looked at, I thought John Farrell was intriguing because he was from a different mold than your typical manager. He was a front office guy that worked as a minor-league director before becoming a pitching coach (a post that not many managers come from). But Cora, Jewett, Skinner, Jauss, and Russell? They're all going to give you the same "defense and fundamentals" line, they're all going to talk about "changing the culture" and things like that. It's just how it works with managers. Tracy and McClendon, for all their differences, talked pretty much the same game and it's the same one I'm sure Russell will be talking up as soon as someone puts a microphone in front of him.

There were aspects of the hiring process that bugged me, though that shouldn't be projected onto Russell. Huntington took a month to hire a guy he could've had immediately. The length of the process suggested to me that either, A.) he didn't know what he was doing or, B.) no one wanted the job. Neither is a particularly appealing option. When Littlefield was fired, there was lots of talk that Pittsburgh was a great job for a GM because of low expectations and the expected hands-off ownership of Bob Nutting. Perhaps the same doesn't ring true for the managerial position, since managers are often the scapegoats for losing and it would appear that the Pirates are going to be losing for a couple more years. Still, the way the hiring process was conducted suggests that we're either a baseball wasteland, we hired a GM that doesn't know what he's gotten himself into, or we hired a GM no one wants to work for. None of those options are appealing.

That being said, I don't have a huge problem with Russell himself being the next manager of the team. I could care less if the manager says, "This team has no plate discipline and if they don't learn how to take a walk, they're never going to win," because if the players haven't learned plate discipline by the time they're in Russell's charge, they're not going to learn it from him and whoever his hitting coach is. That's just the way it is. The actual rebuilding of the Pittsburgh Pirates falls directly on Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly, not John Russell. Russell's job is pretty simple: don't be Jim Tracy. That means not letting the players walk all over him, that means trying to create some pride in the players for the on-field product, and that means not giving maddening self-interviewing press conferences that take me 20 minutes to parse any actual meaning from. Win/loss record next year for the Pirates is irrelevant. A new front office has been hired to clean up the mess that Dave Littlefield left and trying to jerry-rig the roster to win 82 games and not set the all-time losing streak would just be an extension of the Littlefield era. Russell is here to ensure that we lose with pride, Washington Nationals in 2007 style, and not with abject hopelessness, Detroit Tigers in 2003 style. I know that's not what people want to hear, but I think that's the way it's going to be.

2007 Review: Zach Duke

2006: 4.47 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 117 K, 68 BB, 255 H in 215 and 1/3 innings
2006 rate stats: 4.89 K/9, 2.84 BB/8, 10.66 H/9
2007: 5.53 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 41 K, 25 BB, 161 H in 107 and 1/3 innings
2007 rate stats: 3.43 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 13.50 H/9

Counting hits is a dangerous way to measure pitchers, especially on a team that isn't terribly good at fielding. A lot of how many hits a pitcher gives up is made of luck (simply where the hits fall) and the defense (what they're capable of fielding), that just saying "Zach Duke gives up a ton of hits and that's why he sucks" isn't a complete statement, even if it's technically an accurate one.

Duke's problem is that he doesn't fool anybody. Three strikeouts per nine innings is a painfully low number. I'm serious, it actually hurts me to look at it. That's a big problem when you pitch for the Pirates because, despite what a lot of people say, the Pirates aren't very good at fielding the ball. They were third from the bottom of the league this year in defensive efficiency, which just a percentage of balls in play turned into outs. It's a rough metric, but I think it tells us more about the Pirates defense than their second place finish in fielding percentage this year does.

If you're wondering, in Duke's great 2005 second half, he struck out more than 6 batters per 9 innings. It's not a great number, but it's high enough for a pitcher of Duke's make. The problem is that as he gets older that number should be rising, not dramatically falling. That leaves us to try and guess why Duke has suddenly become as hittable as a batting practice pitcher. There are a few explanations. I'll list them in order of how likely I think the explanation is.

Explanation #1- He sucks
Do you remember what his rookie year was made up of? Mostly him putting runners on base, then finding a way to get out of the inning. In his first two starts he struck out 17 batters in 14 innings. The rest of the way out, after hitters had some tape on him, his K/9 was only 5.22, much more in line with his 2006 numbers. He was also giving up almost a hit an inning in those last 12 starts in 2005. That's not a recipe for success, and it's pretty clear that his 1.78 ERA in those starts is at least as improbable as the existence of Magrathea. Give the hitters more time to catch up and you're left with the mess of a pitcher we've got today.

Explanation #2- He was hurt

He missed a lot of time this year with his sore elbow, which explains the awful numbers this year (he did throw a lot of innings in 2006 when compared to his minor league career and if you remember the 2007 preview, he was the starter I was most worried about getting hurt in 2007). If you break his 2006 numbers into halves, he did improve a lot in the second half of '06, which makes his awful 2007 even harder to figure. Thus, injury must be the answer!

Explanation #3- Jim Colborn is a bad-touch man and ruined him
I don't buy this one at all, honestly. For Colborn's changes to have been that disastrous, we would first have to assume that Duke was some kind of great pitcher that he sent into a deep tailspin and, as I've already pointed out, Duke's 2005 numbers involved a lot of smoke and mirrors. That's one of the reasons I don't think Colborn should bear the brunt of the blame for Duke's demise. Another is that Duke actually pitched quite well after the All-Star break in 2006, which was before he tried to abandon Colborn's changes. And lest we all forget, Duke was all for the changes when Colborn was suggesting them. He never said they made him uncomfortable until he started getting pounded, when they first talked about it Duke was all for making some changes in his delivery to make it more consistent.

In the end, things probably aren't as cut and dried as I've made them seem here and it's probably a combination of all three things that has turned Duke from "can't miss" to "can't get an out." Getting him on track is going to be a huge task for whoever John Russell picks as his pitching coach, though, because as good as Snell and Gorzo might be, two men do not a rotation make. I don't have my hopes up, though.

Saturday, November 03, 2007

Perrotto says it's Russell

I know that John Perrotto's not exactly the most reliable source, but with an announcement coming on Monday regarding our new manager, I'm willing to believe that someone other than Neal Huntington, Frank Coonelly, and they mystery man know the identity of our new manager, so I'll link to Perrotto's article that says John Russell is that man.

I'm completely with everyone that says it's not worth getting worked up over whoever ends up getting the job. Huntington and Coonelly's work that has to be done is in the front office and with rebuilding the organization from the bottom up. Russell is just the guy that has to try and keep the ship from sinking too far in 2008. I know he's been here before (he was Mac's third base coach from 2003-2005), which makes him a part of the "culture of losing", but I've heard his name come up in conjunction with other jobs before and it's not like he's a Pirate lifer (like, say Jewett, who's been in the org forever). In fact, I definitely prefer him to Jewett and Cora, I'm pretty neutral on Skinner, and I don't know anything about Jauss.

Oh, and let's not forget that this is a Perrotto rumor, which means buckle up and stay tuned until Monday.

UPDATE: It's all over the place now, so it looks like it's for real. Russell is the pick.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Ken Macha is interested

So, with nothing happening on the managerial front besides Huntington's supposed #1 choice not being terribly interested in the job, Kenny Macha has decided to let the Pirates know he's still in Western PA and not employed at the moment.

"I do have interest in managing again, and I've lived here my whole life," said Macha, who makes his home in Murrysville, Pa., just east of the city. "I know Pittsburgh as well as anybody. It obviously wouldn't be coming to Pittsburgh, it would be being here." [...]

"One of the things that was a luxury about not managing this year was that I was able to see a lot of [Pirates] games on TV," said Macha, who interviewed for the Pirates managerial opening back in 2005, before Jim Tracy was named the franchise's 37th manager. "I probably saw 40 games or so and am very familiar with their personnel."

I'm trying to not be overly cynical here because Macha does have experience managing a young small market team, but if watching lots of the Pirates is what qualifies Macha for the job, well, e-mail me Neal and I'll give you my phone number and we'll set something up.

Seriously though, I have no idea what we're going to do with this whole "rebuilding the front office" thing. Huntington hasn't really hired anyone yet. Even the Dodgers have a new manager, and they weren't even looking for one. I'm trying very hard to remain positive, but a search to fill any job that goes on this long can't be a good thing. A search to fill three (four if you count assistant GM) important jobs that goes on this long is making me very nervous.

UPDATE: Just saw this article at the PG, which says a decision is possible by Monday and the candidates are Joel Skinner, Joey Cora, Trent Jewett, Dave Jauss, and John Russell. None of those names are terribly inspiring to me, though it's possible there's more names known behind the scene because this whole process has been incredibly secretive.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

2007 Review: Paul Maholm

Man, I don't know what to make of this guy most of the time. Most of the time I'm convinced he's garbage, but every once in a while he puts together an extended streak of competence that makes me feel like he could be a pretty good starter this year. You'll notice that I didn't put his yearly stats up. That's because there's a couple things I want to focus on rather than the broader picture. From a subjective perspective, which is where everything starts, I felt like Maholm was a lot better in 2007 than he was in '06. So I looked at the splits and mostly everything was the same, except for two stats that are directly related. Maholm threw almost the same number of innings this year as he did last year (177 and 2/3 this year compared to 176 last year). You can see on his BBRef page that strikeouts, homers, hits, and even runs are pretty comparable from year to year. Walks, and by extension, WHIP, are not.

He cut his walks down from 81 to 49 in 2007, which dropped his WHIP from 1.61 to 1.42. That was what allowed him his three month stretch from May 25th to August 28th in which he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and nearly a 2:1 K/BB ratio despite only a 5.39 K/9 rate.

Look: Maholm's never going to be a stud. He doesn't have great stuff and because of that, I don't know if his K rate will ever raise much above where it is now. It was a bit higher in the minors (7.24 per 9 across all levels), but he only threw 211 and 1/3 innings total in his entire minor league career. Still, it's arguable that he's shown more competence than Zach Duke has in the past two seasons. His solid three month stretch encompassed 18 of his 29 starts this year and there's reason to believe he could've continued it on through the end of the year if back troubles hadn't sidelined him at the end of August. If he can stay healthy (those back problems can be a bit hard to figure out), then I think we've got ourselves our new Josh Fogg. He'll be able to eat innings, his being left-handed will be helpful at PNC Park, and he won't be appreciably worse than average. That's not an incredibly bright outlook, but I'm not willing to give him much more of a ringing endorsement unless his strikeouts jump in 2008 the way his walks dipped in 2007.